Post #3: How Many Turns Before You Go?

How deeply do founders look into the maze before they fully commit?

One more post quick before getting to the interviews / podcast.

Thus far, I’ve been using the concept of the “Idea Maze” in an overly simplistic way. I believe this phrase was coined 10+ years ago by Balaji Srinivasan. Here’s a link to notes from his Startup Engineering course that discusses the concept as well as a good post from Chris Dixon around that time that goes into more detail on the concept.

If you read this, you’ll realize that the “Idea Maze” is actually much more than the process of coming up with the right startup “Idea”. It’s being able to see the sequence of steps and decisions that will be needed to avoid death and get to “the treasure”. In some ways, this is an iterative process and can’t be entirely mapped out from the beginning. But some founders have a remarkable vision of where an industry is headed, can predict the likely moves of the various players, and have a “master plan” to navigate successfully through this period of change and opportunity.

To quote Balaji:

“a good idea means a bird’s eye view of the idea maze, understanding all the permutations of the idea and the branching of the decision tree, gaming things out to the end of each scenario. Anyone can point out the entrance to the maze, but few can think through all the branches”

Having spoken to thousands of founders over the years, I’ve found that there is a lot of variety in how deeply entrepreneurs really think through the maze before they dive all-in.

Some founders try to think through every twist and turn. They have plans for each branch and speak with a huge degree of confidence about how things will unfold.

Other founders have thought through one or two moves ahead. But for the most part, they plan to be heat seeking missiles and rely on their team and talents to be adroit enough to navigate the maze as it comes.

Some founders don’t even realize that they are entering into a maze. They just start solving a problem and find that traction creates more and more opportunity. Before they know it, they are well into the maze without really having had a master plan in the beginning.

I’ve seen founders succeed and fail in all the scenarios above. Not all twists and turns can be accurately mapped out. Sometimes heat seeking missiles run out of fuel before they hit their target. And sometimes, traction creates an opportunity that is ultimately fleeting.

So, I want to point out that most of the founders I speak to over the next few months will be at various stages of navigating an early stage startup. We’ll hear each of the different flavors above and most won’t really be on the other end of the maze.

The idea here is to focus most on how founders come up with which maze to enter and the first few steps that gave them the confidence to fully commit. I think this will end up being most relatable and broadly useful to other founders and future founders as they think through their own journeys ahead.